When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do? -- John Maynard Keynes

Monday, October 29, 2012

Hurricane Sandy: stay informed, stay safe, don't panic!

"NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK..."(National Hurricane Center discussion at 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012)

Re: Hurricane Sandy - It's disconcerting to see people needlessly panic. Oh, I understand the purpose of the media hype (ratings), and politicians posturing ("PR" and getting in line for federal $$$), and of course the "panic buying" has been great for Home Depot and Walmart, but honestly, having lived in Florida and gone through 4 hurricanes in 1 year alone (2004), a little reality check is appropriate.

Precautions are appropriate--but should be in accord with accurate information:
National Hurricane Center:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?gm_track#contents
Google Crisis Map (Sandy)http://crisislanding.appspot.com/crisismap/2012-sandy

Here's a snapshot of the projected path (advisory #029) of the storm (from the National Hurricane Center):
Graphic of Hurricane Sandy path and cone
National Hurricane Center projected path for Sandy






























Hurricane Sandy is only a  Category 1 hurricane--maximum sustained winds of only 90 mph as of 2 pm EDT. You can expect precipitation (rain/snow), wind, some flooding, and some coastal storm surge, depending on your actual physical location. Loss of electric power will be the worst thing that will happen to most people in the path of this storm.

Stay informed. Stay safe. But don't panic.

   

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